Job Requirements
Washington D.C.
Secret Polygraph Unspecified
Career Level not specified
Salary not specified
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Job Description
Applied Statistician - Demand Forecasting (Passport Operations)
Position Overview
We are seeking a highly skilled Applied Statistician to support passport demand forecasting for a critical federal program. This role requires strong mathematical and statistical expertise to develop, validate, and maintain forecasting models that directly inform operational planning and policy decisions.
The ideal candidate will possess a deep understanding of statistical modeling, experience working with real-world data, and the ability to translate complex quantitative findings into actionable insights for leadership.
Key Responsibilities
Note: Degrees such as MBA or general business disciplines without substantial statistical training and applied modeling experience will not be considered sufficient for this role.
Preferred Qualifications
This role requires strong mathematical and statistical modeling expertise. Candidates whose experience is primarily in business analysis, reporting, process documentation, or audit support-without demonstrated statistical modeling experience-will not be considered.
Why This Role Matters
This position directly supports national-level passport operations by ensuring accurate, data-driven forecasting. Your work will influence staffing, resource allocation, and policy decisions across a critical government function.
Position Overview
We are seeking a highly skilled Applied Statistician to support passport demand forecasting for a critical federal program. This role requires strong mathematical and statistical expertise to develop, validate, and maintain forecasting models that directly inform operational planning and policy decisions.
The ideal candidate will possess a deep understanding of statistical modeling, experience working with real-world data, and the ability to translate complex quantitative findings into actionable insights for leadership.
Key Responsibilities
- Develop, maintain, and enhance statistical forecasting models to predict passport demand
- Apply advanced methods such as time-series analysis, regression modeling, and predictive analytics
- Analyze internal and external drivers of demand, including economic conditions, seasonality, and policy changes
- Evaluate model performance using appropriate statistical validation techniques (e.g., residual analysis, error metrics)
- Design and support survey methodologies, sampling strategies, and data collection efforts
- Produce clear, data-driven reports and white papers for senior leadership and stakeholders
- Ensure compliance with Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA) requirements
- Assess and modernize existing forecasting tools and methodologies
- Provide statistical expertise and technical guidance to program staff
- Master's degree or higher in Statistics, Applied Mathematics, Econometrics, Data Science, or closely related quantitative field
- Demonstrated academic or applied experience in:
- Statistical inference
- Regression analysis
- Time-series forecasting
- 3+ years of experience applying statistical methods to real-world data
- Proficiency in at least one statistical programming language: R, Python, SAS, or equivalent
- Strong analytical and problem-solving skills with attention to mathematical rigor
- Excellent written and verbal communication skills
Note: Degrees such as MBA or general business disciplines without substantial statistical training and applied modeling experience will not be considered sufficient for this role.
Preferred Qualifications
- PhD in a quantitative field (Statistics, Mathematics, Economics, etc.)
- Experience supporting government or large-scale operational programs
- Familiarity with demand forecasting in high-volume service environments
- Experience incorporating external variables and shock events into forecasting models
- Knowledge of federal data collection requirements (OMB/PRA)
- U.S. Citizenship required
- Must possess a valid U.S. passport
- Ability to obtain and maintain a SECRET clearance
This role requires strong mathematical and statistical modeling expertise. Candidates whose experience is primarily in business analysis, reporting, process documentation, or audit support-without demonstrated statistical modeling experience-will not be considered.
Why This Role Matters
This position directly supports national-level passport operations by ensuring accurate, data-driven forecasting. Your work will influence staffing, resource allocation, and policy decisions across a critical government function.
group id: 91143230
